Today's A-shares saw the Shanghai Composite Index hit a new low again, with a late rebound after bottoming out and a decrease in trading volume. The market is extremely volatile, and everyone is getting restless and anxious. However, there is still no choice but to hold on and not panic sell.
This generation of investors has been through many battles and can truly stay calm. Everyone has ignored the decline, which is the most difficult thing. If no one panics and sells, the market will not stop falling. The main force of capital has not collected enough "bloody chips," and they will not leave empty-handed.
The overall situation is set! It has hit a new low again.
The current A-shares have set the overall situation, which is to smash the market until everyone panics and sells. This time, it's the liquor and banking sectors that are leading the decline, which could easily lead to a wave of rebound. However, the current decline is still not enough. If the market continues to fall and bottoms out, then the market will bottom out in advance. If it does not fall through and rebounds halfway, it will still need to grind later.
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Do people want it to end quickly, or are they willing to continue to be slowly cut by a dull knife? Personally, I prefer the former, not afraid of a sharp decline, but afraid of a slow decline. The market is protected and lifted at the last two trading days of each month, making the index rebound very slowly. However, the market that should fall through will eventually fall through.
The decline in banking and liquor has led to a significant drop in the main board, while the ChiNext board has not fallen much, and the decline in stocks is limited, so this market will not have panic selling, and everyone's losses are not much.
The decrease in trading volume makes it difficult to say that the market has bottomed out. There is no value in predicting this market, and it can only be said that position management is needed to deal with it. The late rebound is to continue the rebound, or is the rebound over? At present, it is the bottom area, but everyone will be very uncomfortable when they are deeply trapped.
Will there be a rapid rebound tomorrow?
In my personal opinion, tomorrow should be a rebound and rise. Banks and liquor may rebound, and the overall market index will warm up, but the rhythm of stocks is still hard to say. Don't be pessimistic, don't be optimistic, the current situation is a bottom-building market.Xiao Fan also doesn't know how it will operate; it's entirely up to Hui Jin to decide. The key is when they will enter the market, which is unknown to everyone. Their entry is to pick up the redemption chips of funds, not interested in the chips of retail investors; they only want blue-chip stocks.
The funds held by retail investors are all good companies, while the majority of the stocks held by retail investors are likely to be valueless enterprises. Hui Jin's behavior is very obvious; they only increase their holdings in the constituent stocks, which means establishing positions in ETFs, not buying stocks directly, and mainly focusing on the 300 ETF. These constituent stocks will lead the index to rebound in the future, while individual stocks can only rely on themselves, and there is not enough hot money to go around!
The index has no issues, but the stocks are beyond analysis, and it's unclear how to approach them. If one wants to bottom-fish, index ETFs have the highest margin of error. As for stocks, there might be a clear main trend next year, but there hasn't been one this year.
The current market situation is a "three nothings" scenario: no main trend, no trading volume, and no sentiment. There's no need to participate in short-term trading; for long-term investments, patience is required, as any reference would be painful.
In conclusion, today is noteworthy for a particular event: Xiao Fan's position in A-shares turned red during the trading session and then recovered by the end of the day. It has been two consecutive years of losses, and it's unknown if there will be no losses in the remaining three months. It's been a long time since there have been two consecutive years of losses, even though it's a broad-based ETF, the losses are not significant.
The position in Hong Kong stocks is not a concern, after all, the valuation is low, and the floating profit is substantial. A-shares are truly a bit daunting, with no certainty of where the bottom will be. Many companies have no future; what will the future of A-shares be like? Apart from the index, there is really no confidence in anything else.