Hello everyone, today is the afternoon of September 5th. The Chinese stock market has closed for Thursday. Today, the A-shares traded at 530 billion, rising by 4 points, with nearly 4,000 companies going up and 66 hitting the upper limit. However, there is still a sense of unease. Do you know why? Please listen carefully and patiently, and I believe you will have a clear understanding.
Firstly: Today's A-shares broke a new low at 2777, with a reduced volume of 5310 billion in the whole day, with nearly 4,000 companies rising and more than 1,100 falling. Among them, 66 companies hit the upper limit, and 8 hit the lower limit. The main funds did not flow out significantly. In the recent 6 days, the stocks have been rising more than falling for 5 consecutive days. Overall, there is still a blood-return effect today.
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Secondly: The overall A-shares have rebounded for 6 consecutive days since August 28th, with 5 days having a blood-return effect. It is still somewhat comforting, but it always makes people a bit uneasy. Do you know why? The specific reasons are as follows:
The first reason is the continuous reduction in volume of A-shares. Today, the transaction volume was 530 billion. I have repeatedly said that for A-shares to rise, they must have a continuous two-day increase in volume, breaking through 800 billion and 900 billion. Unfortunately, in the past 4 months, there has not been a continuous two-day increase in volume. Although it has rebounded for nearly 6 days, the reduced volume means that the enthusiasm is not strong enough.
The second reason is that the CSI 1000, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rebounded as expected on August 28th for 6 days. Among them, 5 days were up, and they are still above the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, which is slightly better. However, what makes people a bit uneasy is that the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and Shanghai Composite Index have not adjusted to the 0.191 support of the golden section. This makes people a bit uneasy.
The third reason is that it is still uncertain whether the adjustment of the external market has ended. Last night, the Dow Jones Index rose and fell slightly red, still below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages. The Nasdaq Index rose and fell, down 0.3%, forming a Macd death cross, and the S&P 500 rose and fell, forming a Macd death cross. Today, the Japanese stock market fell by more than 1%, and the South Korean stock market fell by 0.2%. The external stock market cannot be said to have stabilized, and it may still adjust. Everyone knows that sometimes A-shares follow the fall but not the rise. This is the third reason for unease.
Thirdly: Today's A-share market is relatively good in performance, with industry sectors such as public transportation, unmanned driving, the Internet, pharmaceutical commerce, real estate, insurance, whole vehicle, food, and securities, and many mainstream industries have formed a medium-sized Yang rebound. The concept sectors include digital currency, mobile payment, smart government, Internet celebrity economy, data elements, and multimodal. So, as long as they are at the bottom position, they have recently had policy benefits or event-driven, and basically all have ushered in a rebound in the oversold market.
Fourth: So, how will the A-share market perform in the future?
First, it is necessary to clarify again that the CSI 1000, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index have rebounded for 6 consecutive days at the 0.191 position of the golden section. Today, they are still above the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, which is relatively stable. However, one thing that must be done later is to break through the 30-day moving average with an increase in volume to officially establish a new round of rebound.
Second, it is still uneasy that the weight index Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and Shanghai Composite Index have not yet stepped back to the 0.191 support of the golden section, and the external stock market cannot determine the end of the adjustment. Any slight movement can easily adjust again, unless there is a sudden explosive benefit.Finally, today the A-share market closed with a narrow-range red doji star on a volume reduction of 530 billion, but the A-share market is still in a completely bearish trend. Many people would say that low volume indicates a low price, but you should be aware that there can be lower volumes still, so it is not yet certain that the A-share market correction has ended. If it retraces to the golden ratio of 0.191 near 2738 and again closes with such a low volume doji star, it might give people a bit more confidence. Do you understand all the points mentioned above? If you do, type '666' to let me know.