In the morning, the market index set a second new low for the year at 2736 points, with more stocks falling than rising. Over 3000 stocks declined, while less than 2000 rose, with the majority of individual stocks experiencing fluctuations within a 3% range, indicating a relatively weak market performance!
As the market index continues to hit new lows, the trading volume has remained consistent with last week's levels. However, I believe this also indicates that there are no more sellers in the market at present, with more investors choosing to remain passive, and the ammunition for bulls has become very limited.
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The main reasons for the market's decline this morning, aside from the weak performance of high dividend stocks, are the collapse of resource stocks, which have experienced significant drops, such as coal and crude oil.
There are two important reasons for the decline in resource stocks:
1. Economic weakness leading to insufficient demand!
Influenced by the US non-farm data, the market believes that the economy will continue to be weak, which will directly lead to insufficient demand. When demand is insufficient, the demand for resources will be weaker. The most obvious example is crude oil, which has already seen a significant drop last week, and it may continue this week.
2. Inflation expectations receding, futures weakening, and related stocks weakening!
The US Treasury Secretary, speaking yesterday, indicated that under the condition of a soft economic landing, inflation is under control and is continuously decreasing. Friends who understand futures investors will know that when inflation rises, futures and stocks go up, and when inflation falls, futures and stocks go down! Therefore, today's decline is not limited to energy stocks; many stocks related to futures are also falling. If inflation is thus brought under control and gradually recedes, resource stocks may be entering a downward cycle!
Let's take a look at how the market trend will unfold next!
As pointed out in this morning's article, this week's market is a tough battle, and more importantly, a psychological ordeal!In the morning, the market continued to hit the second lowest point of the year, but there are two points that everyone should pay attention to:
1. The market has already broken through the annual moving average, which is rare in the history of A-shares. Even if it breaks through, it won't go too deep, and it will be quickly recovered!
2. The market often starts a significant rebound after a rapid decline, such as the trend around 2635 points. Although the current point is not as low as 2635, it is weaker than at that time!
At the end of the morning, the market has already been testing an upward attack!
So I personally think that there is a hope to form a V-shaped trend this afternoon or tomorrow!
Those who have increased their positions for intraday T trading in the morning can continue to watch the market in the afternoon, and those who have been holding their positions can take a break and not watch the market in the afternoon!