The U.S. stock market experienced a notable surge this week, fueled by robust performances from technology and retail sectors. Despite the holiday-shortened trading week due to Thanksgiving celebrations, the S&P 500 reached new heights, marking its most significant monthly gain since November 2023. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) also felt the ripples of this positive momentum, breaking above the 45,000-point threshold during trading, reflecting a strong upward trend since the beginning of 2024.As investors look ahead to the coming week, several vital economic indicators are anticipated. This includes both nonfarm payroll reports and the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices. Market participants will also be closely watching Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s media engagements to see if he dispels any expectations of interest rate cuts.In a surprising turn of events, multiple leading Canadian media outlets have filed a lawsuit against OpenAI, the U.S.-based artificial intelligence research lab responsible for developing ChatGPT, on grounds of copyright infringement. This legal action highlights an increasing scrutiny of how AI companies utilize existing content from traditional media sources.This week, the DJIA rose by 1.39%The DJIA breached the 45,000 mark during intraday trading on November 29, indicating a continuation of an extraordinary bullish streak. Although it did not close above this level, the various major indices charted impressive weekly gains, with the DJIA up 1.39%, the S&P 500 increasing by 1.06%, and the NASDAQ climbing 1.13%. Over the month, the DJIA saw a remarkable 7.54% gain, while both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ witnessed increases of 5.73% and 6.21%, respectively.In light of these developments, investment management firm BlackRock has suggested modest allocations into U.S. equities before the year ends, particularly emphasizing financial sectors, discretionary consumer goods, and select technology stocks. They have reduced their positions in defensive sectors, positing that the market will benefit greatly from economic growth, looser monetary policies, and government stimulus efforts.Furthermore, BlackRock expressed confidence that the upward trend in U.S. markets could persist, particularly for cyclical stocks. They anticipate bond markets could face challenges due to economic strengthening and rising fiscal deficits, which may create pressure on long-term U.S. Treasury rates.Meanwhile, Guotai Junan (Hong Kong) maintains that technology continues to be a pivotal element in U.S. equity investments. They noted that leading tech companies hold significant intrinsic value. The outlook for the AI industry not only serves as a crucial pricing logic for these leading firms but also acts as an essential barometer for the overall profitability of the U.S. economy.This institution has pointed out that despite the elevated valuations in the U.S. equities market, the rapid advancements and profitability realized in the AI sector can sustain the optimistic expectations associated with high valuations. Looking forward, a 'soft landing' scenario for the U.S. economy remains the prevailing outlook, with a trend toward increased risk appetite, meaning investors are more willing to take on risk—a condition likely to yield continued capital inflow into technology as a cornerstone in economic growth.Experts forecast an increased likelihood of the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate cuts by mid-next year.As we look into the following week, the economic data remains dense, with reports on nonfarm payrolls, the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index anticipated. On a micro level, major industry players such as CRM, SNPS, and TD will be releasing their earnings reports. Additionally, the public appearances of Chairman Powell and other Federal Reserve officials are expected to take center stage.Minsheng Securities has highlighted that the probability of the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate cuts by mid-next year is increasing. Given the low unemployment rate and stagnant inflation, the Fed might still have room for two or three rate cuts next year, possibly pausing reduction efforts in the latter half. In a lower probability scenario, aggressive actions regarding tariffs and immigration policies could lead to a downturn in U.S. stocks and significant economic contraction, potentially resulting in more cuts next year.This week, the U.S. dollar index maintained a strong posture overall.The foreign exchange market experienced significant volatility this week, influenced by geopolitical developments and macroeconomic data. The Japanese yen appreciated substantially against the U.S. dollar as inflation in Tokyo exceeded expectations, while the dollar index retreated due to low liquidity over the holiday period but remained strong overall. The dollar index dipped by 0.37% to settle at 105.77, with a trading low of 105.61—its lowest since November 12.Elias Haddad, a senior market strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman, noted that low trading volumes over the holiday, month-end portfolio rebalancing, and overbought technical conditions might apply downward pressure on the dollar.In a related note, multiple Canadian media outlets have sued OpenAI for copyright infringement.According to reports, on November 29, leading Canadian media organizations filed a joint lawsuit against OpenAI for alleged copyright violations. This follows a similar legal action by the New York Times in the U.S. The plaintiffs include the Toronto Star and its parent company, Metroland Media Group, along with the Postmedia Group, the Globe and Mail, the Canadian Press, and the CBC—media companies of considerable significance within Canada. They allege that OpenAI has “frequently violated” copyright and online usage terms by scraping vast amounts of content from Canadian media to assist in developing products like ChatGPT. They assert that OpenAI has utilized this content without permission or compensation to the content owners.Vietnam's National Assembly has approved investment for the North-South High-Speed Railway project.As reported by Xinhua News Agency, the 15th National Assembly of Vietnam approved a resolution regarding investment policies for the North-South High-Speed Railway project, amounting to a total investment of 1.7 quadrillion Vietnamese dong (approximately $67.34 billion USD) during its eighth session on November 30. Vu Hong Khanh, the head of the Assembly’s Economic Committee, stated that after 18 years of preparation, and referencing global high-speed rail models, this project has been deemed well-suited to Vietnam's context.The plan encompasses a total length of 1,541 kilometers, connecting the capital city of Hanoi with Ho Chi Minh City and linking 20 provinces and municipalities in between. The Vietnamese Assembly has mandated that feasibility studies should commence by 2025, with the aspiration of completing the project fundamentally by 2035.
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